Pro Wrestling Power

Will there ever be another period in pro wrestling like the Hulkamania era or the Attitude era? And if so, when will it take place?

These are questions that are unable to be answered with any great certainty by any fan or wrestling journalist, but I have my own theory on this and I’m going to share it with you here.

First of all, in our lifetimes, assuming most people reading this are under the age of 40, I am very confident that we will see at least one if not several more “boom” periods of great popularity and financial success for the wrestling industry, particularly the WWE. I base this opinion on two simple facts: 1. wrestling’s popularity does seem to be somewhat cyclical. 2. there is a very large base of committed, hardcore fans around the world who would be quick to spread around the good news of a quality product to casual fans, who are the real catalyst for any boom period in wrestling.

So it’s pretty safe to assume that somewhere along the line in the next 50 years, the WWE, and maybe another competing company like TNA, will catch fire and ignite another classic era in pro wrestling where ratings, pay per view buyrates and merchandise sales are sky high and arenas around the world are sold out. At some point, pro wrestling will be a topic of water cooler conversation again. It’s just a matter of time.

So now that we’ve established that another boom period is inevitable in our lifetime, when is it going to take place? Well to answer that, there needs to be two things in place, at least in my mind, to spark the next great popularity boom. First and foremost, wrestling needs a transcendent superstar, much like Hulk Hogan, Stone Cold Steve Austin or The Rock, who connects with hardcore fans and casual fans alike, and can be the undisputed face of the company and leader of the era. It must be someone who is featured on TV and movies and is all over magazines and the Internet while at the height of their wrestling popularity.

The second thing that needs to be in place for this next great era to occur is high quality writing from the bookers for at least 6 months leading up to the popularity boom. This includes not only great storytelling but also booking the other main eventers and upper midcarders to seem extremely important in the eyes of the fans. It will also include setting up angles and feuds so that the blow off match that culminates the feud is both a big deal to the public and can be executed well by the wrestlers so that it means more long term to fans as well.

These two things in conjunction with each other, a transcendent star and great writing, would cause the next boom period to occur within 6 months or less, whereas it may have taken a lot longer in the past because of the lack of Internet social networking websites. If the product were to improve by leaps and bounds and these two basic elements were in place, hardcore fans would spread the energy around very quickly on the Internet and casual fan interest would be way up in no time. But as you well know, finding a transcendent star and improving the quality of the booking is much easier said than done. These have been two problems that have plagued the wrestling industry, and the WWE in particular, since the end of the attitude era in 2001.

But like I said before, it will happen eventually. The planets will align at some point and the necessary components will be in place for pro wrestling to take off to perhaps new heights that were not even seen during the attitude or Hulkamania eras. When do I think this will happen?

Right now the future looks dim, as the WWE’s ratings are stuck in the mid 3′s on average and PPV buyrates are subpar. Attendance and merchandise sales around the world are pretty solid, but the overall excitement in the wrestling world is lacking and has been lacking for quite some time now. But I think a changing of the guard in the WWE and a challenge from TNA could be just what is going to set this next great wrestling era into motion.

That’s why we’re closer than you might think to the next great period in wrestling history. I am going to go out on a limb right now and predict that the next wrestling boom period will begin in early 2012 and last for about two and half years, through the summer of 2014. How did I come to this conclusion you might ask?

Although it’s not one of the necessary factors I mentioned above to spark the next wrestling craze, the WWE’s own TV network, which should be on the airwaves by late summer of 2011, will be an important element that could draw in hoards of older, nostalgic fans who want to see classic matches from the WWE and other promotions that Vince McMahon will surely air on his network throughout most of the day. Over time, with advertising and a renewed interest in wrestling’s past, it’s only natural that a large percentage of these fans will at least sample the current WWE product. When that happens, if the WWE is ready for it with high quality programming, they will be poised to increase their fan base significantly and get people talking once again.

But that will just be the initial catalyst that could spark this next great financial period for the company and the industry at large. Like I said before, without a true transcendent superstar and consistent quality writing from the booking team, there will not be another great extended period in the WWE or pro wrestling in general.

So that means that over the course of the next year or so, I’m expecting someone to rise up and start to develop into that star, and I’m banking on the writing getting a whole heck of a lot better too.

Let’s start with the writing. I’m expecting TNA to continue to build gradually and eventually force the WWE to fight back with better programming and more intriguing storylines. Does this mean that TNA will ever pose a serious threat to the WWE in the ratings or in overall profitability? Not necessarily, but I do think that as early as mid summer of 2010, TNA could be eating into the WWE’s core audience somewhat and making them raise their game for the fall, which is traditionally a lackluster time of year in the world of professional wrestling.

When this happens, the competition will go up and the wrestlers and writers from both sides will naturally raise their games. This will lead to the much bigger and stronger WWE producing a product that is as good or better than the one they were putting out in early 2001, and I think that will happen by early 2011.

There will still be room in the market for TNA if they keep putting out quality shows at that time, but I see the WWE racing away from them on the road to Wrestlemania 27 and leaving them in the dust much like they are now, after TNA closes the gap somewhat later this year. So I do see the writing getting better, because it will have to. And Wrestlemania 27 in Atlanta, with huge WCW overtones, should cause some newfound creativity to come out of the company that we once again haven’t seen since the Attitude era.

That takes care of the improved writing. But now for the biggest challenge. Who is going to emerge as the next breakthrough, mainstream star and lead the WWE into the next generation?

Let’s look at some candidates: I’ll start with John Cena. He has some mainstream appeal already and is extremely popular with the female and younger audience, meaning mostly little kids. But the problem is that these two segments of the WWE fanbase are still a minority, and he is largely viewed as uncool to the average casual fan. He is still relatively young and he could be more successful with a heel turn or a return to his previous rapper persona, but he’s not going to be the man to bring the WWE into a new great era of popularity.

How about The Miz? He has awesome mic skills, has had some exposure outside of the wresting world and seems to be building great momentum as a first class heel in the company right now. But I don’t see him getting over as a face with a semi-heel persona, which is really what it’s going to take for the next great wrestling superstar to emerge. Could he be the number one heel and a very important factor in the next wrestling boom period? Absolutely. But will he be the transcendent star that is the cause of it? Probably not.

CM Punk is a more talented in ring athlete but he is in much the same boat as The Miz. Could he be an important main event heel long term for the company? Of course, he should be. But he is not going to ignite this new era we’re talking about.

John Morrison is fantastic inside the ring and not all that bad when it comes to charisma. He is young and he has the look of the next great champion. But his mic skills and charisma will never electrify a crowd to the point where they all get behind him and he is drawing in hoards of casual fans to watch the WWE, so he’s out.

Then there’s the group of young guys who all have flashed some level of potential in the past year: Sheamus, Drew McIntyre, Ted Dibiase, Cody Rhodes, Kofi Kingston, Jack Swagger, and all the young stars on NXT, as well as the promising young stars in the developmental minor league Florida Championship Wrestling (FCW). Are they all important cogs in the wheel that is the WWE machine over the next decade, and would they play important roles in this new era? Yes, most of them will, but I don’t see that special quality in any one of these guys that is going to make them major celebrities and media sensations.

The best shot the WWE has, and the one who I predict will be the superstar that sparks the next wrestling boom period, is Randy Orton. He just turned 30 on April 1, so he is just entering is prime. He has already established himself as an above average in ring competitor who understands ring psychology. He is good on the mic and possesses charisma. He has a good look for a heel or face, and he has wrestling in his blood, as his father Bob Orton was a great heel in the 1970′s and 80′s.

He is even currently portraying the classic “face with heel tendencies” that I said would probably be necessary for the next huge superstar. And most importantly, the vast majority of the WWE crowd is really behind him right now. In fact, they were eager to get behind him when he showed the very first signs of a possible babyface turn. In a matter of a few months, he could be absolutely on fire with the entire WWE fanbase and a lot more popular outside of the wrestling world as well.

He is by far the best chance the WWE has in the near future for a guy to get behind that could lead them to the promised land of another great era in wrestling history, and for Vince McMahon’s sake, another financial boom. I am a fan of him, not a huge fan right now, but I could see him being someone I could really get into over the course of the next year. I think a lot of other fans are in the same boat. His momentum is building, and I think casual fans could really get into his persona eventually too. So Randy Orton is my choice to be the next chosen one, so to speak. He should be the top dog in the company for the next decade or so regardless if he sparks another great popularity boom or not, because he possesses all the skills that are necessary in the ideal modern professional wrestler. And more importantly, he is someone that fans care about, whether he’s a heel or a face.

With these components in place, I think January of 2012 will be the beginning of the next wrestling boom period and the next highly profitable time for the WWE. I expect Undertaker to have his last match at Wrestlemania 28 in 2012 and garner some major publicity after he retires at 20-0. He will be the last of the “old guard” and the new generation will officially be ushered in that spring, although they are going to build up to that throughout the second half of 2011, much like the second half of 1997 for the attitude era, or going back to the Hulkamania era, the first half of 1984.

Obviously this is all just speculation, and I could be way, way off. But hey, it’s fun to speculate and it would be awesome if I’m right. I am confident that we are on the verge of another wrestling boom period, despite how things may look right now. Even if this all doesn’t go down like I just predicted, which is highly unlikely anyway, look for things to pick up and excitement to build in pro wrestling in early 2011, and then much more so with the WWE TV network in the summer of 2011. No matter what happens, it’s going to be a fun ride, but I really do think we are on the brink of something special here, and you’re going to be glad you stuck around to see it all develop right in front of your eyes.

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